Ready — click Run Model to fetch today's +500 +EV HR picks.
Picks Today
+EV · ≥ +500
Best Odds
Best EV
Record (graded)
🎯 Today's Picks
📋 Grade Picks
🔬 Methodology
🔍 Debug
+EV HR Props ≥ +500 — Today
Picks auto-saved after each run. Grade them in the Grading tab.

No picks yet.
Click Run Model to fetch today's +EV picks ≥ +500.

Pick History & Grading
Total Picks
Wins
Losses
Win %
P&L
📋

Run the model first to save picks,
then grade them here.

How ALEX 2 Works

Filter

Only players with live American odds of +500 or greater AND positive expected value are displayed. If the market has no qualifying line, the player is excluded entirely — no estimated odds are ever shown.

Odds Sources

William Hill · Caesars · DraftKings · FanDuel. The best (highest) American odds across those four books is shown, along with which sportsbook is offering it.

Scoring

Barrel% (26%), xSLG (20%), HR/FB% (18%), Park Factor (14%), Hard-Hit% (12%), Pitcher HR/9 (10%), adjusted by wind factor.

EV Formula
EV% = (Model_Prob × (Decimal_Odds − 1)) − (1 − Model_Prob)
Saving & Grading

After each run, all qualifying picks are auto-saved. Go to the Grading tab to mark each pick Win or Loss after games end. P&L is calculated using a $200 unit size.

⚠️ For entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
📋 Run Log
Run the model to see the log here.
🗂 Statcast CSV Headers
Run the model to see headers.
🔑 Odds API Tester
Test the props endpoint (WilliamHill · Caesars · DK · FD)
Click a test button.